Momodou Sabally, The Special Presidential Adviser
By Fatou Sillah
Momodou Sabally, Special Presidential Adviser and senior member of the National People’s Party (NPP), has dismissed suggestions that the recent by-election in Kiang Massembeh points to a weakening performance for the ruling party ahead of The Gambia’s 2026 presidential election.
The United Democratic Party (UDP) retained the Massembeh Ward seat in the closely watched by-election, defeating the NPP candidate. However, Sabally insisted the outcome should not be interpreted as a setback for the NPP.Sabally pointed to what he described as significant gains made by the ruling party in the Kiang Region, noting that the NPP increased its total votes by 18%, rising from 433 in the previous election to 513 in the latest poll.
“The NPP’s total votes actually grew by 18 % from 433 in the previous election to 513 in the current year. This double-digit increase for NPP is a clear signal that the incumbent is quietly winning hearts and minds in Kiang especially among the all-too-important youth category,” he said.
Sabally also challenged the narrative that the UDP’s victory reflected NPP weakness, arguing instead that the results reveal potential vulnerabilities for the opposition party.
“With 58% of votes cast in their favor, the UDP could not attract even 60% of votes in an area well known as their fixed deposit. The numbers are actually showing a red flag to the incumbent in this region. If the more than 200 votes of the NPP in Toranka Bantang against the UDP’s Party 5 votes is not a cause for concern, then they should get ready for another shock in 2026,” he said.
Despite the contentious political analysis, Sabally commended the people of Massembeh for what he described as a peaceful and well-organized election.
”It was a well-fought-out contest overall, and we must commend the voters of Massembeh Ward for strong voter participation in a campaign that actually went in a very peaceful and orderly manner overall. Truly a win for our democracy and peace. Total votes cast increased by more than 20 % compared to the previous election,” he said.
The Massembeh by-election had been seen by many political observers as an early test of voter sentiment ahead of what is expected to be a competitive 2026 presidential race.
A comparative analysis by Kerr Fatou Media of the 2023 general election results and the 2025 by-election outcomes for Massembeh Ward highlights significant trends and key statistics that reveal shifting voter behavior and party dynamics, despite attempts by politicians like Sabally to shape their messaging in favor of their parties.
Voter Performance Overview2023 Election Results:
Bakary Korita (UDP): 550 votes
Lamin Jarjue (NPP): 433 votes
Vote Margin: 117 votes in favor of UDP
2025 By-Election Results:
Bakary Jarjue (UDP): 700 votes
Lamin Jarjue (NPP): 513 votes
Vote Margin: 187 votes in favor of UDP
Key Comparisons and Trends
Increase in Voter Turnout:
Both candidates gained more votes in the 2025 by-election compared to 2023.
UDP: Gained 150 more votes (from 550 to 700).
NPP: Gained 80 more votes (from 433 to 513).This suggests heightened political engagement or more effective mobilization by both parties.
UDP’s Growing Lead:
Although both candidates increased their votes, UDP’s margin of victory widened from 117 votes in 2023 to 187 votes in 2025. This reflects UDP’s stronger appeal or improved campaign strategies during the by-election.
Candidate Dynamics:
The UDP candidate changed from Bakary Korita (2023) to Bakary Jarjue (2025).
The new candidate’s surname similarity to Lamin Jarjue (NPP) could have influenced voter perception, but UDP still retained and expanded its support base.
This suggests that party loyalty, rather than individual candidate identity, might be a more significant factor in Massembeh Ward.
The 2025 by-election results highlight UDP’s consolidation of power in Massembeh Ward, increasing both its vote share and margin of victory. Although NPP made modest gains, they were overshadowed by UDP’s robust growth.